(yip-10) Fast, Flexible, Rational Inductive Inference
نویسنده
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Psychology of Inference
The problems of inference are manifold: the first task facing the theorist concerned with them is to attempt an ordering of priorities, to decide which of them to tackle. One must assay not only the relative importance of the various problems but also the possibilities of achieving their successful solution; only then may the individual problems profitably be addressed. Historically, the majori...
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Humans and other animals need to make inferences about their environment under constraints of limited time, knowledge, and computational capacities. However, most theories of inductive inferences model the human mind as a supercomputer like a Laplacean demon, equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational capacities. In this article I review models of fast and frugal inference, that...
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1. Introduction. The purpose of this paper is to present a theory of in-ductive inference and rational acceptance in scientific inquiry. A concept of relevant deduction is defined in which the truth of each and every premise of a deductive argument is essential to establishing the truth of the conclusion by deduction from the premises. This definition is based on the completely abstract notion ...
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Bayesianism is a theory of inductive inference that makes use of the mathematical theory of probability. Bayesians usually hold that the relevant probabilities should be interpreted in terms of rational degrees of belief. This still leaves much scope for disagreement, since there is no consensus about what norms govern rational degrees of belief. In this chapter, we first provide an introductio...
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In this article I discuss the subjective rationality of xenophobic and racist beliefs. Although such beliefs are mostly non-rational from an objective perspective, because of their incongruence with reality, under certain conditions they may appear rational from people’s subjective point of view – in particular in situations of uncertainty. The reason for this is mainly cognitive limitations an...
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